atotallySECULARmohammad

2007-02-24T12:18:00.000-08:00

Click on the link and sit back, watch and listen.
How sweet is this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfxRuDHw-zs&mode=related&search=

A Closer Look

2007-02-05T18:45:00.001-08:00

Not long after my last post, the media began reporting precisely what I had written therein. Imagine my shock! I know not to wonder whether I'm psychic or not because even I know not to buy that one. But it was interesting. So, let's try it again.

In the not too distant future, months, weeks perhaps, but certainly not years, the leadership in Tehran will appear to 'acquiesce' and agree to a temporary suspension of it's enrichment program. On the surface, the headline will read Tehran chose the path of least resistance and has unceremoniously stepped back from the edge of the abyss. But while this news is repeated with great fanfare in our around the clock media, look closer and you will see Tehran is also celebrating, but for very different reasons. For Tehran's master chessplayers, a negotiated settlement has always been the ultimate objective of the nuclear program, it's hidden purpose -Iran's coming in from the cold. Tehran has known for many years now that only by wratcheting up the pressure level would D.C's national interests compel it to put political considerations aside. In other words, only a subject matter as strategically consequential as the nuclear issue would have the necessary political gravitas to no longer bind US-Iranian relations captive to domestic political considerations. For Tehran, the agreement on the nuclear issue is an implicit acceptance of Tehran's re-integration to the international order and it is of extreme value to the Iranian leadership. Ergo the Cheney faction of the administration's vehement opposition to any sort of negotiated settlement. WhenTehran believes they have arrived at the best deal they can reasonably expect, look closer, and a very content Iran will strike the deal they've patiently waited for.

Dangerous Escalation

2007-01-22T18:33:00.001-08:00

In the world of daytime television the soap opera dominates. Pick your network, if your boob tube is on during that time chances are the storyline is one drama filled roller-coaster of a ride, mixed with a cocktail of various vices. In the arena of international relations, the closest thing we have to the soap opera is the continuing saga of the US-Iran estrangement. It has all the elements of drama: they started of as friends, good friends; there's a falling out; friendship turns to hostility; a final showdown. The news of escalating tensions from the MidEast appear to render true that there is indeed a showdown of sorts brewing between the two governments. This is very worrisome and should it continue, where and how the parties climb down the ladder, if at all, is not going to be easy.

To this writer, the evidence of escaltion abounds. In particular, events in neighboring Iraq rise to the level of a new decisional threshold being reached by the authorities in Tehran. Consider the weekend's downing of the helicopter and the sophisticated attack on US personal in Karbala in conjunction with the raid on the Irbil compound and the dispatching of the Stennis to the Gulf. If the clerical establishment has adopted the position, and it probaly has, that the best way to deter an attack upon themselves is to make Iraq a quagmire, then is it, at a minimum, within the realm of possibility that the weekends casualties are in direct response to the Irbil raid. Of course I can offer no proof, no secret sources; but surely this analysis is already being discussed by policymakers in DC. Certainly, proxies are the direct source of the attacks but under the direct supervisory authority of the clerical establishment's military wing. If correct, then if one party acts, the other will reciprocate. Violence could quickly spiral out of control. I can only hope that I am completely off the mark and worrying, as usual, way too much, but when you know the MidEast as I do, you know that there is many precedents for thinking the unthinkable.

One last point: analysis is not advocacy. Nothing could be further from what I want to see happen between the US and Iran. Nothing.

More New Photos

2006-09-11T20:02:00.000-07:00

New Photos

2006-09-06T20:14:00.000-07:00

We have lots of new photos. There are probably too many to

upload at one time, so there'll be a staggered posting of images in the coming days. To the left Sonia and Ariya are on the computer. And that is Ariya and I. She is now approaching the 8 month mark. What a cute baby!

Knowing When To Say When

2006-06-06T16:00:00.000-07:00

It is now generally reported in the media that the administration has made it known to Iran of their openness to negotiations with respect to it's nuclear program. Various terms of the preliminary offer include US nuclear assistance and the waiving of certain sanctions. The process is at a very early phase. Iran should take up the offer of negotiations. The administration's insistence that Tehran be willing to suspend it's enrichment program is not a non-starter. It's clear that any such suspension would be voluntary and predicated upon the success of the negotiations. It is reasonable that Tehran accept such a precondition. It has already reached the technological threshold it wanted so it can afford giving a little here.

Iran's objectives are within reach. Although a negotiated settlement is still far from being achieved, it should respond by supporting the diplomatic opening that has arisen. A voluntary suspension is within it's power to grant and it should have the courage of it's convictions to do so. The administration has given a little, now Iran should too.

The Dance Continues....

2006-05-31T09:13:00.000-07:00

Today's announcement of the news Washington is preparing to come out from behind the curtain and publically join the Western powers in their negotiations with Iran is important, although not certain to produce a favorable outcome for either the stability of the international system or America's preeminent position therein. Ostensibly, the issue is Iran's nuclear program, but although unstated, far more than the nuclear program is at stake. The underlying subject matter is the nature of US-Iranian affairs for the foreseeable future and the emerging 21st century global balance of power.

Let us hope cooler heads prevail and the powers that be share a healthy respect for and understanding of the principle that nations have neither permanant allies or enemies, just permanent interests.

New Photos

2006-05-17T06:24:00.000-07:00

A Sigh Of Relief

2006-05-05T14:50:00.000-07:00

To my surprise, today I learnt that I had passed the State Bar exam for the licensing of attorneys.
What a shocker!

M

New Photos

2006-03-06T07:34:00.000-08:00

The Enemy Is Radicalism

2006-02-10T06:37:00.000-08:00

So much has been said already about this story, I thought it would be good to read what ordinary folk think on the subject, so here it is, your personal soapbox: fire away, and please, don't spare my feelings, this is an important subject.

The enemy is radicalism.

January 17th, 2006: The Day That Changed The World...

2006-01-18T17:36:00.000-08:00

Dateline: January 17th, 2006 13:32 PST

Yesterday Little Ariya left the familiar confines of her Mummy's belly and officially entered the ranks as a full fledged inhabitant of Planet Earth. That's right folks, the baby has landed!!! Without further ado, I have the honor and pleasure of presenting Ariya Nayeri, the newest member of our little family. More are on the way, but here's a first look:

Happy Holidays

2005-12-25T19:12:00.000-08:00

To those of you out there who do not celebtrate Festivus and instead follow one of the traditional Abrahamic faiths, then warmest wishes to one and all - a Merry Christmas and a Happy Chanukah.

Peace On Earth

Otherwise, Happy Festivus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just Shut Up!

2005-12-14T10:05:00.000-08:00

If I pass the Bar it will be a real "Festivus" miracle because I spend so little time on the law and instead can't seem to stop reading about Iran, Israel, the U.S. and the general health of the international system (and to nobody's surprise, it's not good) whilst listening to the last few shows of Howard on terrestrial radio.

And then today Mahmoud drops another one. It's one thing to be critical of Israel's government - it certainly is not beyond reproach - Israeli's will tell you that. What government is? But one crosses the line if the assertion is that nothing really happened in Europe, say between 1938 (Kristallnacht) and 1945 vis-a-vis European Jewry and the Nazi government of Adolph Hitler. The atrocities directed towards Jews, Communists, gays, the mentally and physically handicapped, POWs and German dissidents that we have collectively labelled as the Holocaust is a fact that cannot be subject to reasonable doubt since it is capable of accurate and ready determination by sources not open to reasonable dispute, not least of which were the Nazi's themselves. Mahmoud has never heard of Wansee or the conference that took place there on January 20th, 1942. It matters not because in the end we must approach bigots like him (there are others throughout the world of all ethnicities and faiths) the same way Howard does with KKK member Daniel Carver - let them speak and reasonable people will know what to think.

Prenatal Peek

2005-12-10T19:07:00.000-08:00

Totally unrelated to international relations is the subject of little Ariya's birth. We're due on January 17th, 2006. Here are some pictures.

Is that a laugh?

In deep contemplation.....

I think, therefore I am.

Yes, my Daddy keeps reading Descartes to me.

This one captures her with her right eye open - does she know we were watching

Here, I think you can make out her fingers - maybe it's V for Victory!

How The Wheels Of Time Have Turned Full Circle

2005-12-01T07:15:00.000-08:00

As the Bar approaches, it seems the arena of international relations becomes more exciting. There is so much to be talking about studying for the Bar seems so inconsequential.

Mr. Sharon and company appear to be on the move - a good story for his country and the rest of us.
Mr. Ahmedinejad has been busy.

And there's been some interesting developments with respect to the dance between those two scorned old lovers, Tehran and Washington, what I like to call the 'other peace process.'

They really are akin to partners in a broken marriage - once bitten twice shy, and with all the attendant issues: communication breakdown, fear of commitment and intimacy, the usual.

Today, we are so far away from pre-Revolutionary US-Iranian relations that it's easy to forget just how close the two countries were at one time. As you can see from these photos, Iran and the US used to be best buddies. Hard to fathom now, but do you remember the American President chose to spend New Year's Eve in Tehran in 1977, raising his glass to "an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world!!!"

How the wheels of time have turned full circle.

Howard Stern

2005-11-10T20:57:00.000-08:00

To those of us who are fans December 16th, 2005 is a day of mixed emotions. A man who is arguably the most misunderstood cultural personality of our 21st century world is leaving an industry in a way far removed from what it was when he first knocked on radio's door. He didn't just ride the wave of the mediums success, he was the wave. In so doing, this guy, who can, and does make people from all walks of life roar with laughter at 6.30 AM has transformed from DJ to First Amendment champion. Yes - yours and mine - Mr. Howard Stern.

I wish the show well and as soon as I'm done studying for the Bar (FEB 06) I will re-connect with Howard and company.

Peace

Good News From Iraq

2005-11-09T21:29:00.000-08:00

Just read this article and advise you to check it yourselves. It's informative.

I take comfort in knowing the soldiers on the ground are in good spirits. When all else is lost, believing in the cause is as powerful a weapon as anything from the best stocked arsenal. So that is a good thing.
I say, why roll the dice? Why not flood the country with manpower? It just makes no military sense.
Numbers are crucial when in a fight on the streets and they are no less important on the battlefield. Transformation? The RMA? (Revolution in Military Affairs) Both good things - but the needs on the ground is a superceding intervening force. An adjustment could be all that is between a dramatic tip in the balance and the steady drip of mounting casualties

I certainly hope that the American experience in Iraq succeeds, but just cannot see it happening without a u-turn on the numbers argument.

Rolling In Their Graves....

2005-11-05T21:41:00.000-08:00

I haven't commented much on the situation in Iraq, at least not at any length. Shameful of me in light of how important events are there to the larger international balance of power. It gives one great pause and a certain amount of trepidation thinking of the various outcomes that may befall Iraq.

Before glancing into the future, recognition of the controversy surrounding the initiation of major hostilities beckons. Seeing Mr. Hussein in the docket in an Iraqi court of law is, for me, as powerful as the image of the lone man from Beijing going toe to toe with a 45 (anyone's guess) ton tank. On that basis alone the invasion and -lets call a spade a spade - occupation of ancient Mesopotamia is a noble cause. If it succeeds, the West, more precisely, the Anglo-American alliance, the heirs of the Atlantic Charter will have something to be proud about and the people of Iraq, and maybe the region, will be in Washington's debt. But to remain the primary actor in the international system, a nation cannot be driven by noble causes alone. A country must act in their national interests first and foremost. All other considerations are presumptively secondary. For a nation to act contrary to their fundamental interests, the cause must be of such magnitude that reason compels a reluctant acceptance of the calculus of risk.

As glad as I am to see Mr. Hussein, stripped of his fedora and military fatigues, seated, with the look of one who has been thoroughly routed in a Baghdad courtroom, as far as US interests are concerned, the costs far outweigh the benefits. I can't help but believe that the architects of the contemporary international security environment, the Roosevelt's, the Eisenhower's, the generation that fought and helped defeat Nazi Germany are now rolling in their graves.

But we are where we are now and the situation must have a favorable outcome or the unintended consequences will have far reaching implications for the sustainability of the Pax Americana. So looking forward, there are many things that need to be done. First, I implore the powers that be to find the troops to flood Iraq with at least three hundred thousand more boots on the ground. Can u imagine landing on Normandy undermanned, or coming ashore at Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima or Okinawa without the military manpower needed? It borders on criminal negligence to put the armed forces in harms way in numbers too few to accomplish the mission. If the country doesn't have them, then the moment of truth may be upon us. But I fail to understand why 100 000 plus in the European theatre cannot be quickly redeployed. And there a many more throughout the globe stationed in an outdated Cold War posture. Without further delay, those units should join the current US presence in Iraq. An Iraq that fractures is not in the interests of Washington. Outside powers necessarily will have a different point of view. But even when looking at it in the light most favorable to Washington, the territorial integrity of Iraq is in jeopardy, but it must be fought against. Hence the massive troop build up.

Second, American diplomacy must begin to be used in a way that it hasn't been for along time now. In this age of JDAMS and stealth technology, diplomacy gets too short a shrift. American diplomacy must think big. There are deals to be made. Compromises to be had - win/win situations that want for exploitation. When used properly, coupled will political will, diplomacy can in one moment change the world we live in. Can you remember Nixon in China? And when it is abused and neglected the powers of diplomacy are no less potent, albeit destructive. Think of the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran. So there is great work to be done on the diplomatic front.

Lastly, in the coming days I will address the odd relationship, if it can be called that, between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel. Resolution of this, the other 'peace process' is crucial and long overdue.

The Painful Truth......

2005-10-24T12:42:00.000-07:00

Sometimes the things that hurt the most are true. When this is the case in matters relating to foreign policy, the weight of those words take on take on added import. Nations acting within the international system sometimes operate on justifiably empirical foundations, and at othertimes, on fundamentally unjustifiable grounds. Such policy 'incoherence' can have dramatic and dangerous consequences and are therefore difficult for unbalanced, vulnerable political systems to deal with.

Case in point, yesterday's vitriolic speech by the recently "elected" "President" of Iran's Islamic Republic. Simply put, he demonstrated what an ass he really is. Pardon my bluntness. Moreover, once again the clerical establishment has acted contrary to the interests of the nation they purport to represent. International relations aside, Ahmadinejad's diatribe had the added effect of revealing a morally indefensible, fundamentally unjustifiable position vis-a-vis Israel.

Finally, let me state that he is not my "President." I dare say, the vast majority of the people in Iran would agree with that statement. And although I am not speaking in any official capacity, on behalf of what I know, through personal knowledge, to be true, I condemn in the name of the ordinary people of Iran, Ahmadinejad's callousness - without reservation.

One last thing, at a later date I will post an article that addresses Iranian-Israeli enmity and proposals for ending this unnatural estrangement.

Too Late To Cry Over Spilt Milk....

2005-10-18T19:38:00.000-07:00

For some time now various voices from both inside and outside the Middle East have been heard lamenting the fact that Tehran's influence in post-Saddam Iraq is making a mockery of the whole undertaking. Let us not deceive ourselves.

Come on people - it's a little too late to be upset now with what was only an inevitable consequence of removing the Sunni power elite form their primary positions of power. The Shia are going to be close with Tehran. The so-called Neocons saw what they wanted to see, made more tolerable, perhaps because in their eyes, whatever advantage gained by the clerical establishment of Qom, would be, at best shortlived - lest we forget, the mantra of those heedy days of April 2003, "real men go to Tehran."

Alas, Ladies and Gentlemen, the die is cast and unless we are prepared to confront Iran, further jeopardizing the shelf life of our Pax Americana, we are going to have to learn to live with the emergence of a new balance of power in Persian Gulf.

What Is In A Handshake? A Nascent Opening....

2005-09-14T20:25:00.000-07:00

As expected, the leaders of Pakistan and Israel met briefly today within the corridors of power that is the preeminent international body, the United Nations. The setting was appropriately New York City, the site where four years previously the culmination of decades of Old World religious fanatacism spilled over into the streets of that great New World metropolis. Whatever one's politics maybe, the events of that day and countless others before it remain morally indefensible, so it was with much delight that Messer's Sharon and Musharraf gave each other the benefit of the doubt and behaved in accordance with the better angels of their respective heritages and cultures.

But what is in a handshake? Time will tell. The moment is rife with symbolism for it is an open secret that on September 10th 2001, to distinguish Al Qeada from senior elements of the Pakistani Intelligence Services (ISI) would have amounted to little more than a mere play on words. In a similar vein, the transformation and evolution of Sharon is staggering , save the question of the West Bank and that too remains unclear as to its final outcome. Yet, be that as it may, the nascent opening is bolstered by the proverbial wisdom of the saying that "the longest journey begins with one small step," a handshake for example.

Well Done Iran........

2005-09-06T07:47:00.000-07:00

The thrust of the previous post was that yet another chance for advancing US-Iranian comity was slipping away. As someone who wishes ill towards neither party, since creating this blog, I have elected to be a watchdog of sorts, keeping tabs on how these two estranged nations interact with one another and periodically, when events warrant, use the blog as a soapbox from which I can launch a broadside or two when either government screws up or offer a nod of approval when they get it right. Well, due to the crisis spawned by Katrina I found it sorely lacking that the government in Tehran could muster nothing better than condolences for the victims left in Katrina's wake, which when translated from the parlance of international relations amounted to the diplomatic equivalent of a social nicety.

Alas....Tehran has improved it's standing with this critic as it was reported by the BBC this morning that Iran is prepared to immediately send 20 million barrels of crude to the US and assist the fragile economic condition of the country at a time when our own supplies have been dramatically curtailed. Kudos to the forward thinking individual in Tehran for this gesture. Notwithstanding the wall of mistrust that separates Washington and Tehran, diplomacy and national interests must not play second fiddle to ideology and political posturing. As we all know, Katrina's impact on our ability to refine crude has been the most damaging result of the storm on the hydrocarbon sector of the economy, but with an injection of 20 million barrels of Iranian crude the pressure on US refining capacity will be significantly alleviated. Since Iranian oil is the 'good stuff' - that is, not all oil is created equally if u will (Iranian oil is described as 'light sweet crude' as opposed to the 'heavier' and therefore more intensively refined) meaning the need for refinenment is substantially reduced. Just as Iran accepted US aid during the Bam earthquake, let's hope Washington will do the same now.

Another Missed Opportunity?

2005-09-02T16:28:00.000-07:00

With rare exception, natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, as awful as they are, provide opportunities for nations that are otherwise at odds with one another, to find common ground. It's a measure of each nation's shared humanity - basic stuff really. As events unfold in the Big Easy, Biloxi and countless other towns in the surrounding area, I cannot help but take note of the fact that, yet again, another opportunity for simple, decent humanitarianism is quickly slipping by. The government of The Islamic Republic Of Iran could have responded appropriately by doing more that the mere perfunctionary offering condolences, which to their credit, they have expressed. While words are not unimportant, nor unappreciated, why not take unequivocal action such as offering to immediately provide search and rescue teams that because of Iran's own vulnerability to natural disasters, earthquakes for example, it is more than capable of doing. When in December 2003 an earthquake destroyed the city of Bam, the United States government put aside political differences they had with the government in Tehran and offered to send their own search and rescue teams to assist the ordinary Iranian people amidst the widespread misery. Now it is Iran's turn. As I tell my eight year old, always offer to help - whether it is accepted or not is not the issue - basic stuff really.

Don't Spare My Feelings, Please Profile Me!!!

2005-08-06T19:33:00.000-07:00

Profiling - thanks to the situation we find ourselves in, for people with my first name or anything remotely as suggestive, the word profiling has developed an extraordinary meaning and import. Blah, blah, blah....I know, you've heard it all before.
Let me tell u what I think....

My wife and I were just talking and somehow the conversation meandered around to the lawsuit over the issue of profiling in NYC subways, that as a response the 7/7 London Bombings, is now practiced throughout the city's transportation network. There she was, in her beautiful 'I graduated cum magna something or other from law school' way, explaining to me how it was a bad thing that now the cops have been shown the green light to practice discrimination. I kid u not, my face cringed a little and felt obliged to say that I would hope those guys were discriminate in their work. I would have known to just at least check out the guys who are alleged to have carried out the 7/7 attacks. What can I say...I just know what to look for as would many other men and women who are from the region. Not that the 7/7 guys were MidEastern, because they were not. But someone from the general vicinity would just know that a South Asian is just as likely to be a nutjob as is some dude from camel jockey country. It's just a fact of life. Anyway, that's what I said to my wife. For my die-hard friends of the infallible Constitution fan club, "look.... eerr.....the Constitution...it's the most beautiful set of words in any language that I have ever come across - - but it's meaning is rooted in the fact that we are country of laws where the rule of law prevails (for the most part) - - if a cataclysm, the kind of which the response in NYC is intended to prevent were to occur, then, in all likelihood, the Constitution will, regretfully be swept aside. What will it be replaced with? I dread the thought....but the point is the Constitution, as sacrosanct as it most certainly is, is not suited to being measured strictly in the world of lofty ideals and principles of good governance. It must, to be both practical as it is ideologically inspirational, be examined through both lenses. Aware of this fact, I say don't spare my feelings, please profile me!!! You had better be discriminating or else I fear it will all be for naught. There has to be a civil society for the Constitution to remain relevant. Let the historians be polite and the leadership be brave.